Adaptation Strategies Strongly Reduce the Future Impacts of Climate Change on Simulated Crop Yields
نویسندگان
چکیده
Simulations of crop yield due to climate change vary widely between models, locations, species, management strategies, and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To understand how adaptation affects change, we developed a meta-model based on 8703 site-level process-model simulations with different future strategies scenarios for maize, rice, wheat soybean. We tested 10 statistical including some machine learning predict the percentage in projected relative baseline period (2000–2010) as function explanatory variables related strategy change. used best model produce global maps RCP4.5 scenario identify most influential affecting using Shapley additive explanations. For was factor determining rice wheat. Without under RCP4.5, all crops are expected experience average losses 6%–21%. Adaptation alleviates this loss by 1–13 points. Maize responsive adaptive practices mean ?21% [range across locations: ?63%, +3.7%] without ?7.5% [range: ?46%, +13%] adaptation. maize irrigation method cultivar choice were types predicted prevent large losses, respectively. When applied, areas gains, especially at northern high latitudes. These results reveal critical importance implementing adequate mitigate impact yields.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Earth’s Future
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2328-4277']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003190